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WEEKLY OUTLOOK |
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31.07.2023-04.08.2023
Good afternoon traders.
The week kicked off with the July Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US which all came out softer than expected. On Tuesday the German IFO survey reflected the deterioration in the growth outlook while in the US the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index report showed an increase to 117.0 from 110.1 despite market expectations. Early Wednesday data coming from Australia revealed softer-than-expected inflation. Later in the day the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.5%, as expected. Chair Powell mentioned that the June inflation Consumer Price Index was welcomed but “was only one month's report.” He added that if data suggests more hikes are needed, “that is the judgment we'll make.” ECB was next to announce its Main Refinancing Rate decision on Tuesday. The bank raised rates by 25 basis points with ECB’s President Christine Lagarde stating that all options are on the table for the next meeting in September. The same day data coming from the US showed that the world’s largest economy expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate, above the expected 1.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales posted better-than-expected readings. Finally on Friday the day started with BOJ releasing its monetary policy rate which was left unchanged at 0.1%. The week ended with FED’s favourite inflation report, the PCE Price Index which came below market expectation at 3%. This week on the monetary front we have the release of RBA’s interest rate decision on Tuesday and BOE’s on Thursday. Other high impact financial data will be China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone’s Preliminary HICP rate and GDP, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Germany’s Final Manufacturing PMI and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Have a nice week ahead.
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