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WEEKLY OUTLOOK03.07.2023-07.07.2023 |
Good afternoon traders.
This week was all about inflation related data releases. Eurozone, Canada, and the US announced their CPI reports giving an indication on what’s to come regarding interest hikes and whether the major central banks will go back to raising rates. On Monday Germany’s IFO Business Climate and Business Expectations figures for June, both indicated a continued deterioration in one of Europe’s largest economies. Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday a decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (May) as expected by the market participants. Canada's annualized headline and core inflation have decelerated to 3.4% and 3.7% respectively. In the US better than expected data showed that consumer sentiment for June is more optimistic than expected. During ECB’s Forum held in Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday major central bankers noted that inflationary pressures persist in the economy and that given the current economic situation, the heads of the central banks hinted that more rate hikes are to come. Thursday began with inflation data from Germany. German Prelim CPI showed an increase to 6.4% on a yearly basis in June from 6.1% in May. This reading came in higher than the market expectation of 6.3%. Early afternoon the US reported that the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter. China was the first to release data on Friday with the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) arriving at 49.0 in June as against the 48.8 contraction seen in May. Inflation in the US fell to 3.8% on a yearly basis in May from 4.3% in April according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis after the publication of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
Have a nice week ahead.
|
Monday 03 July |
||||
|
Time CET |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) |
|
41.0 |
|
10:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Jun) |
|
46.2 |
|
16:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) |
|
46.9 |
|
Tuesday 04 July |
||||
|
Time CET |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
06:30 |
NZD |
RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) |
4.10% |
4.10% |
|
08:00 |
EUR |
German Trade Balance (May) |
18.4B |
|
|
16:30 |
CAD |
Manufacturing PMI |
49.0 |
|
|
Wednesday 05 July |
||||
|
Time CET |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
02:30 |
CNY |
Caixin Services PMI (Jun) |
|
57.1 |
|
10:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI (Jun) |
|
53.7 |
|
21:00 |
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
Thursday 06 July |
||||
|
Time CET |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
15:15 |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
|
278K |
|
15:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|
|
|
17:00 |
USD |
ISM Services PMI |
|
50.3 |
|
Friday 07 July |
||||
|
Time CET |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
08:00 |
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jun) |
|
-1.0% |
|
14:30 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
339K |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Rate (Jun) |
3.7% |
|
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