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<b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS <b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS

Cutting-Edge Market Commentary for Informed Strategy Making

WEEKLY

OUTLOOK

13.03.2023-17.03.2023


Good morning traders.


A very exciting week went by with three ‘major currency’ central banks announcing their monetary policy decisions and a Nonfarm payroll report. As widely expected, RBA hiked rates by 25 basis points, raising the cash rate from 3.35% to 3.60%. Across the world, Bank of Canada) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, as expected. Next in line for a Monetary policy decision was Japan. In its last policy meeting Governor Haruhiko Kuroda left Japan’s negative interest rate unchanged at -0.1% which came along with market expectations.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. According to Powell “The data from January on employment, consumer spending, manufacturing production, and inflation have partly reversed the softening trends that we had seen in the data just a month ago”. These remarks from the Fed’s Chairman shook the market and possibly opened the door for a larger magnitude rate hike in the upcoming March meeting.
Finally, the much-anticipated NFP report came above market expectations at 311K while unemployment rate in the US climbed to 3.6%, two-tenths of a percent above consensus estimates.
The following week, with central bank meetings out of the way, traders will turn their focus mainly on the latest inflation data releases from the US and UK. On Thursday ECB will release its monetary policy statement announcing its decision on interest rates. Forecasts predict another half a point increase at 3.50%. We will also have high impact news regarding the OIL market. On Tuesday OPEC will release its monthly report while   on Wednesday the Energy Information Administration will announce the Crude oil inventories data.


Thanks for reading.
Have a nice week ahead.




 

WEEK AHEAD


Monday 13 March

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

09:00

EUR

Euro group Meetings



16:00

USD

Consumer Inflation Expectations

4.8%

5.1%

23.55

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence

0.4%

-6.9%


Tuesday 14 March

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

08:00

GBP

Claimant Count Change (Feb)

0.3K

-12.9K

12:00

USD

OPEC Monthly Report

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) (Feb)

6.3%

6.4%


Wednesday 15 March

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

03:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)

2.6%

1.3%

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) (Feb) / Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

0.3%/0.2%

0.7%/3.0%

15:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.116M

-1.694M


Thursday 16 March

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

01:30

AUD

Labour Report (Feb)



13:30

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

-7.4

-24.3

14:15

EUR

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)

3.50%

3.00%


Friday 17 March

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

11:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) (Feb)

8.5%

8.5%

14.15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)

0.4%

-1.0%

15:00

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)

67.5

67.0



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RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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