Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

<b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS <b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS

Cutting-Edge Market Commentary for Informed Strategy Making

WEEKLY

OUTLOOK

30.01.2023-03.02.2023




Good morning traders.

A slow start to the week with markets staying relatively quiet due to the lack of high impact economic news on Monday. Investors moved to side-lines awaiting the critical announcements by Central banks regarding monetary policy decisions.

Canadian GDP data, released on Tuesday, showed that the country’s economy grew as expected in December at a 0.1% pace, unchanged compared to November’s data. During the Asian trading session data from New Zealand revealed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 3.4% in the fourth quarter from 3.3% in the third quarter. In the same period, Employment Change came in at +0.2%, falling short of the market expectation for an increase of 0.3%.

On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve announced their monetary policy decision, a decision widely anticipated by market players. The central bank decided to hike its benchmark rate by 25 basis points showing that policymakers changed the wording on inflation, noting that it “has eased somewhat but remains elevated”. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Fed is strongly committed to reaching its 2% inflation target. He also repeated that job gains have been robust, and the unemployment rate has remained low.

Investors focus shifted to Europe on Thursday with ECB and BOE both announcing their monetary policy decisions. BOE came first and as was widely expected, the central bank hiked interest rates for the 10th time in a row, by another 50 bps to 4%. Later that day The European Central Bank also hiked by 50 bps and even confirmed another 50 bps for March. However, President Lagarde said that the following decisions will be a meeting-by-meeting matter and that it will be data-dependant.

Following a major volatile action on Wednesday and Thursday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the NFP data on Friday. The result came way above market expectations of 185k, at 517k giving the greenback a strong boost against its rivals.

Traders can expect a choppy start to the week as they absorb Friday’s freakishly strong U.S. jobs report and heightened geopolitical tensions after a U.S. fighter jet shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon on Saturday.










Monday 06 February

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

10:30

GBP

Construction PMI (Jan)

49.6

48.8

15:00

EUR

German CPI

9.2%

8.6%

16:00

CAD

Ivey PMI (Jan)

33.4


Tuesday 07 February

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

04:30

AUD

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb)

3.35%

3.10%

15:30

USD

Goods and Services Trade Balance (Dec)

 

89.8

18:00

USD

            Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 


Wednesday 08 February

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

11:00

 EUR

Italian Retail Sales (YoY)

4.9%

4.4%

16:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.376M

4.140M


Thursday 09 February

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

12:00

EUR

            European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts

15:30

USD

                Initial Jobless Claims

183k


Friday 10 February

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

08:00

   GBP

                        GDP (YoY) (Q4)

0.4%

1.09%

14:00

EUR

                        German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 

9.2%

8.6%

14:30

 CAD

                        Employment Change (Jan)     

8.0K

104.0K


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RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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