Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

<b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS <b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS

Cutting-Edge Market Commentary for Informed Strategy Making

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 19.12.2022 - 23.12.2022


After the central bank meeting with BoJ on Tuesday, the Holidays are coming with some fear of the bogeyman for the recession!

The central banks have limited the increase in rates and, without many explanations, have given the impression that time will pass for there to be concrete slowdowns in their battle against inflation.

Despite the increase in inflation, the central bank is not expected to change negative rates.

In fact, its monetary policy has always been unique compared to other major central banks, ultra-accommodative to support the development of services still bruised by the pandemic due to frequent outbreaks still present in rural and non-rural areas, and exports on which Japan is the most dependent developed country in the world.

In any case, it is extremely difficult for surprises to arrive before the expected change at the top in April 2023. In fact, Kuroda will stay in his position for another few months until he retires.

The Santa Claus Long Rally appears to be lagging behind as US stocks, fell for three consecutive sessions and finished their second week with losses on Friday.

There is no need to despair because the magic of Christmas could fix the moods of investors. The surveys that report confidence in various countries, present almost daily during the week, should be a good indicator in that sense. During the week, attention should then shift to US real estate and personal spending data, authentic gems in the news scene.

As always, the data on the API, EIA oil inventory, and the data on Baker Hughes plants, which will surround the meeting of the European Council, should be reported, where the proposal on the Russian gas price ceiling will be discussed again after last week's black smoke.



Monday 19 December

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

10:00

EUR

IFO Business Confidence Index Germany (Dec)

87,4

86,3

11:00

EUR

Earnings in the Eurozone (Yearly) (Q3)

4,10%

21:00

NZD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (Q4)

87,6

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (Monthly) (Nov)

-2.129M

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (Yearly) (Nov)

-12.880M


Tuesday 20 December

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

01:00

NZD

Business Confidence Level (Dec)

-57,1

02:15

CNY

Preferred interest rate of the PBoC

3,65%

04:00

JPY

BoJ monetary policy statement

04:00

JPY

BoJ press conference

04:00

JPY

Interest rate decision

-0,10%

-0,10%

08:00

EUR

German Production Price Index (Monthly) (Nov)

-2,2%

-4,2%

14:30

USD

Building Permits Issued (Nov)

1,483M

1,512M

14:30

USD

Building Permits (Monthly) (Nov)

-3,3%

14:30

CAD

General Retail Sales (Monthly) (Oct)

1,5%

-0,7%

14:30

CAD

Retail Sales (Monthly) (Oct)

1,4%

-0,5%

22:30

USD

Weekly stocks of oil

7,819M

22:45

NZD

Balance of Trade Balance (Yearly) (Nov)

-12.880M

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (Monthly) (Nov)

-2.129M


Wednesday 21 December

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

08:00

EUR

GfK report on German consumer climate (Gen)

-38,0

-40,2

14:30

CAD

General Consumer Price Index (Yearly) (Nov)

5,8%

14:30

CAD

Major Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (Nov)

0,4%

14:30

CAD

CPI (Monthly) (Nov)

-0,1%

0,7%

16:00

USD

Consumer Confidence Report (Dec)

101,0

100,2

16:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (Nov)

4,20M

4,43M

16:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (Monthly) (Nov)

-5,2%

-5,9%

16:30

USD

Stocks of crude oil

10,231M

16:30

USD

Cushing, Oklahoma inventory of Crude Oil inventories

0,426M


Thursday 22 December

Time CET

Val.

Event

Forecast

Previous

08:00

GBP

GDP (Quarterly)

-0,2%

0,2%

08:00

GBP

GDP (Yearly)

2,4%

4,4%

14:30

USD

GDP (Quarterly) (Q3)

2,9%

2,9%

14:30

USD

Price Index GDP (Quarterly) (Q3)

4,3%

4,3%

14:30

USD

Initial jobless claims

225K

211K


Friday 23 December

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

00:30

JPY

National General Consumer Price Index (Yearly) (Nov)

3,7%

3,6%

00:50

JPY

Minutes of the monetary policy meeting

14:30

USD

Major Durable Goods Orders (Monthly) (Nov)

0,1%

0,5%

14:30

USD

Core Personal Expenses Price Index (Monthly) (Nov)

0,2%

0,2%

14:30

USD

Top Consumer Spending Price Index (Yearly) (Nov)

4,6%

5,0%

14:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM Monthly (Nov)

-0,8%

1,1%

14:30

USD

PCE Price Index (Yearly) (Nov)

6,0%

14:30

USD

Consumer Spending Price Index (Monthly) (Nov)

0,3%

14:30

USD

Personal Expenses (Monthly) (Nov)

0,2%

0,8%

14:30

CAD

GDP (Monthly) (Oct)

0,1%

0,1%

14:30

CAD

GDP (Yearly)

3,93%

16:00

USD

Michigan Consumer Expectation Sentiment (Dec)

58,4

16:00

USD

Michigan Confidence Index (Dec)

59,1

59,1

16:00

USD

New Home Sales (Monthly) (Nov)

7,5%

16:00

USD

New Home Sales (Nov)

595K

632K

19:00

USD

Drilling rigs USA Baker Hughes

620

19:00

USD

Baker Hughes data on the total number of mining facilities in the US

776



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