Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

<b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS <b> MARKET</b> ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS

Cutting-Edge Market Commentary for Informed Strategy Making

Weekly Market Outlook 28.11.2022 - 02.12.2022

The US Employment Report is certainly the main event, not only due to its normal importance (one of the most important periodic events) but after almost a year looking at the FED and interest rates, the minutes of the November meeting are showing a possible slowdown in increases.


In this context, the statements by Fed Chairman Powell to the Brookings Institution will be important on Wednesday and the Beige Book which summarizes the situation of the federal districts and is an important key to understanding the decisions of the next meeting of the US central bank on 13-14 December together with the employment data which will also be released on the other days of the week as well as Friday, inflation and personal expenses.


Also, during the week, the CPI with a forecast of 10.4% slightly lower than the 10.6% in October and unemployment in the euro area.


Other central bankers' speeches starting today with Madame Lagarde, President of the ECB and tomorrow, Mr. Bailey, Governor of the BOE, will provide operational insights for the week.


Monday 28 November

Time CET

Val.

Event

Expected

Previous

15:00

EUR

Speech by ECB President Lagarde

18:10

EUR

Speech by the President of the German Bundesbank Nagel


Tuesday 29 November

Time CET

Val.

Event

Expected

Previous

00:50

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

5,0%

4,8%

09:00

CHF

GDP (Quarterly) (Q3)

0,3%

0,3%

09:00

CHF

GDP (Yearly) (Q3)

1,0%

2,4%

14:00

EUR

CPI Germany (YoY) (Nov)

10,3%

10,4%

14:00

EUR

CPI in Germany (MoM) (Nov)

-0,2%

0,9%

14:30

CAD

GDP (Yearly) (Q3)

4,56%

14:30

CAD

GDP (Quarterly) (Q3)

0,8%

14:30

CAD

GDP (MoM) (Sep)

0,1%

0,1%

14:30

CAD

Annualized GDP (Quarterly) (Q3)

1,5%

3,3%

16:00

GBP

Speech by Governor Bailey of the BoE

22:30

USD

Weekly stocks of oil

-4,800M


Wednesday 30 November

Time CET

Val.

Event

Expected

Previous

02:30

CNY

China Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI Nov)

49,0

02:30

CNY

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (Nov)

49,0

49,2

02:30

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

48,0

48,7

09:00

EUR

Non-monetary policy summit of the European Central Bank

09:55

EUR

Change in Unemployment in Germany (Nov)

15K

8K

09:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate (Nov)

5,5%

5,5%

11:00

EUR

Main Consumer Price Index (Yearly)

5,0%

11:00

EUR

CPI (MoM)

1,5%

11:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) (Nov)

10,4%

10,6%

14:15

USD

Change in Nonfarm Employment (ADP) (Nov)

200K

239K

14:30

USD

GDP (Quarterly) (Q3)

2,7%

2,6%

14:30

USD

Price Index GDP (Quarterly) (Q3)

4,1%

4,1%

14:30

USD

Trade Balance of Goods (Oct)

-90,20B

-92,22B

16:00

USD

JOLTs New Jobs (Oct)

10,300M

10,717M

16:30

USD

Stocks of crude oil

-1,055M

-3,691M

16:30

USD

Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

-0,887M

19:30

USD

Speech by Fed Chairman Powell

20:00

USD

Beige Book (US federal district budgets)


Thursday 1 December

Time CET

Val.

Event

Expected

Previous

08:00

EUR

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

-0,6%

0,9%

09:55

EUR

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (Nov)

46,7

46,7

10:00

EUR

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

47,3

47,3

10:30

GBP

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (Nov)

46,2

46,2

11:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

6,6%

6,6%

14:30

USD

Top Consumer Spending Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

5,0%

5,1%

14:30

USD

Core Personal Expenses Price Index (MoM) (Oct)

0,3%

0,5%

14:30

USD

Initial jobless claims

235K

240K

14:30

USD

PCE Price Index (Year) (Oct)

6,2%

14:30

USD

Consumer Spending Price Index (MoM) (Oct)

0,3%

14:30

USD

Personal Expenses (MoM) (Oct)

0,8%

0,6%

14:30

JPY

Speech by Governor BoJ Kuroda

15:45

USD

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (Nov)

47,6

47,6



Friday 2 December

Time CET

Val.

Event

Expected

Previous

03:40

  AUD

Speech by RBA Governor Lowe

 

 

03:40

  EUR

Speech by ECB President Lagarde

 

 

05:30

  NZD

Speech by RBNZ Governor Orr

 

 

07:00

  JPY

Speech by Governor BoJ Kuroda

 

 

08:00

  EUR

German Trade Balance (Oct)

5,4B

3,7B

14:30

  USD

Average Hourly Earnings (Yearly) (Nov)

4,6%

4,7%

14:30

  USD

Average Hourly Wage (MoM) (Nov)

0,3%

0,4%

14:30

  USD

Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

200K

261K

14:30

  USD

Attendance Rate (Nov)

 

62,2%

14:30

  USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

200K

233K

14:30

  USD

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

3,7%

3,7%

14:30

  CAD

Change in Employment Level (Nov)

-10,0K

108,3K

14:30

  CAD

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

5,3%

5,2%

14:30

  EUR

Speech by the President of the German Bundesbank Nagel

 

 

19:00

  USD

Drilling rigs USA Baker Hughes

 

627

19:00

  USD

Baker Hughes data on the total number of mining facilities in the US

 

784




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